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Impact of Technical Analysis on Karachi Stock market of Pakistan This thesis examines the impact of Technical Analysis on Karachi Stock Exchange by investigating the tools used for Technical Analysis for the sample period of 1997 to 2014. The KSE-100 index was examined to represent the market over the sample period for the following three aspects. First the results indicate that KSE-100 index do not follow random walk model by applying the Wright‘s rank and sign variance ratio test. Secondly the study compared a variety of extremely popular technical trading rules based on simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, relative strength index and stochastic RSI to find the predictive ability of these indicators. The thesis also employed generalized regression neural network (GRNN) for stock prediction. The results show that these trading rules have predictive power over future price behavior. It is also evidenced that the inclusion of oscillators like RSI and RSI Stochastic increase the performance in generating above average return. The combination of GRNN with simple moving averages also produced significant return. Based on these trading rules, the study proposed two trading strategy in order to know that whether investor beat buy-and- hold strategy. The results indicate that strategy based on these rules have the ability to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. The results are significant even after considering the transactional cost. Technical Analysis is very effective for the investors in creating excess return for the sample period. Keywords: Market Efficiency, Karachi Stock Exchange, Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index, Stochastic Oscillators, Artificial Neural Network, Technical Analysis
A Path to Tourist Advocacy: The Mediating role of Tourist Satisfaction and Moderating role of Perceived Destination Risk and Tourist Personality Tourism is regarded as a low cost industry with high level income for any country. Tourists’ advocacy is an instrument in which a person spreads information about anything related to tourism (goods or services) to the potential tourists to attract them towards the destination. This study aimed to test a theoretical model for tourists’ advocacy on the face of unique and identical severe risky situation, associated with the present tourists’ destinations in Pakistan. The research involved the tourists visiting natural tourism destination in Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa. Sample was selected through single stage cluster sampling method. The samples of 2457 tourists were administered with given the questionnaires to answer. The reliability and validity for the scale were checked through Conbach Alpha and Confirmatory factor analysis. The relationship between Independent variables (Perceived destination awareness, Perceived destination Image, Perceived destination quality and Perceived destination price) and dependent variable (Tourist advocacy) were found significant and positive. The process of bootstrapping method proposed by Preacher and Hayes (2016) was used to check the mediation and moderation in the model. The researcher found out that tourists’ satisfaction is a mediator between destination branding and tourist advocacy. It was found out that all types of risks were significant and negative moderators between the destination branding and tourist satisfaction except few e.g. HR ER PSR SR were insignificant between PDI and TS, TR, PSR were insignificant between PDA and TS, and HR, TR, ER were insignificant between PDQ and TS. Personality type (Extraversion) was found to be significant and positive moderator between the tourist satisfaction and tourist advocacy. The results of this study are expected to have significant contribution in shaping the direction of tourism marketing plans and strategies the study recommends.
Effect of corporate governance on firm capital structure A case of cement industry in Pakistan The core aim of the study is investigation of corporate governance effect on firms capital structure in Pakistan cement industry. To describe corporate governance, the variables used are CEO Duality, firm size, asset tangibility, return on assets and board size. The variable for capital structure is debt ratio. For this purpose a ten year data of 16 cement companies in Pakistan was taken, which was ranging from 2003 till 2012.Regression analysis was used to establish the said relationship between variables. The fact cannot be denied that Pakistani companies lack corporate governance mechanism at all levels in contrast to developed countries. However qualitative results of work shows CEO duality ,firm size and asset tangibility have positive relationship with total debt ratio whereas board size and return on assets shows negative relationship with total debt ratio. These results establish the fact that corporate governance is helpful for the managers as well as for the regulatory bodies. The latter shall achieve optimization of an ideal capital structure; the other will build guidelines for a sustainable corporate governance mechanism in the country for better enterprise efficiency. KeyWords: corporate governance , capital structure ,panel data
Relationship Track for consumer markets with Involvement, Trust, Commitment and Moderating role of relationship marketing tactics Relationship marketing is an important element to attract and satisfy the customers. Relationship marketing also plays role in attraction of customer’s attention towards the relationship between suppliers and customers. The basic purpose of the study is to provide a relationship Track that will help marketers to create and maintain strong relationships in consumer markets of developing nations like Pakistan. Data were collected through administered questionnaire which consists of 24 items from 380 respondents of the universities students in cities of Islamabad and Peshawar of Pakistan. The results show that involvement has positive impact on the relationship value. Trust was found as non-significant on relationship value. The findings also suggest that commitment have positive impact on relationship value. The other important result of the study is that relationship marketing tactics play moderating role between involvement, trust, and commitment on relationship value. Managers can easily increase and maintain relationship with their customers by following the proved hypothesis in a developing country like Pakistan. It will also help them choose the right relationship marketing strategy to gain the positive results.
An Empirical Analysis of Various Assets Valuation Models on the Karachi Stock Exchange. Generally, there is a lack of empirical studies focusing on evidence of presence of momentum premium in emerging equity markets and particularly in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). This study measures the efficiency of Augmented Fama-French Three-factor model as well as provides comparison of Capital Assets Pricing model and Fama-French three-factor model on the KSE by using monthly data over the period January 2006 to December 2013. In addition, the study provides empirical evidence on the presence of momentum premium in the emerging market of the KSE. It provides some empirical evidence in the emerging market of the KSE. The companies' data used in this study consisted of 120 listed firms which were divided into 25 and 27 portfolios separately. By adding the fourth factor, namely momentum factor to market premium effect, the size effect and the book-to-market ratio effect, data has been tested; further more models have been empirically tested by rebalancing every year for 25 and 27 portfolios individually and separately. The empirical evidence of this study confirms that the augmented Fama & French three-factor model holds for the KSE and the momentum factor is also significant for the market. By comparing CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and Augmented model, this study finds that the augmented factor model provides significantly improved explanatory power over CAPM and Fama-French three-factor model and gives evidence of the existence of positive size premium, value premium and momentum premium in the KSE
Job Design and Work Outcomes in Universities: A Comparative Study between China and Pakistan. Job Design and Work Outcomes in Universities: A Comparative Study between China and Pakistan.
The Interactive Role of Temporal Team Leadership in the Telecom Sector of Pakistan: Utilizing Temporal Diversity for Sustainable Knowledge Sharing Human or social dimensions need to be significantly considered to maintain organizational sustainability. Unfortunately, this aspect has received relatively little attention when compared to other dimensions of sustainability. This study promotes the presence of a leader to manage conflicts, which cause hindrances in achieving sustainability. This is possible by maximizing sustainable knowledge sharing in a team, by effectively utilizing temporal diversity, including time urgency, time perspective, and pacing style diversity under a certain time pressure. This study has examined the effect of temporal diversity on knowledge sharing within teams by taking temporal conflict as a mediator. Moreover, it was also investigated whether the role of team temporal leadership is effective in utilizing the conflicts arising from the temporal diversity. The research design was quantitative in nature. A purposive sampling technique was used to gather data from 100 dyads working in the telecom sector of Pakistan, by distributing questionnaires. The findings suggest that team temporal leadership plays an effective role when a conflict arises rather than after it has arisen because more time and resources will be required to resolve such conflicts arising from temporal diversity. When the temporal diversity is low, the leader can manage the conflicts quite well, but as the diversity increases, the role of the temporal leader become much harder which may cause increased conflicts because of the limited capacity of a leader to manage those conflicts. Furthermore, it was observed that conflicts, if managed properly, may lead to increased knowledge sharing.
Earnings Management, Cost Stickiness And Firm Performance The purpose of this study was to find out the existence of cost stickiness behavior in Pakistani firms and find mediating role of cost stickiness between earnings management and firm performance. In order to measure cost stickiness, this study use SG&A cost as an proxy and employed Anderson et. Al (2003) model. To measure earnings management, non-discretionary accruals was find out by using the Modified Jones Model (1991). Return on asset (ROA) and Return on equity (ROE) was taken as measure of firm performance. The finding of the study shows that manufacturing firms listed in KSE 100 Index (2017) shows the cost stickiness behavior. Cost increase by 0.54% due to 1% increase in the firm activity while decrease by 0.24% for 1% decrease in the firm sales volume or activity level. This study conclude that earnings management has significant positive relationship with ROE and ROA, showing that higher the earnings management higher the firm performance. This study also concluded that earnings management has significant relationship with cost stickiness which means that higher the earnings management in the firm, lower the cost stickiness level. Relationship between cost stickiness and firm performance was also checked. Findings shows that cost stickiness has negative and insignificant relationship with ROA while has significant and negative relationship with ROE. At the end, mediation analysis was run by using AMOS 21. Mediation analysis shows that cost stickiness play a mediating role between earnings management and cost stickiness. Based on the findings this study recommends that, boards of directors should monitor the cost related activities and financials of the firms more carefully. It is proposed that managers of the companies must identify and control the cost behavior of their companies and consider it in the processes of decision making. As earning management show the positive impact on the performance, managers try to increase the agency cost to produce signaling effect but in the long run this may effect adversely ( as in the case of Enron, WorldCall etc.) therefore, Board of directors should have a vigilant eye on cost measurement and reporting procedure to avoid earnings management. Keywords: Earnings Management, Cost Stickiness, Firm Performance
Impact of Corporate Governance On Firm Performance: Mediating Effect of Risk Management This study aims to highlight the empirical evidence whether risk taking mediates the relationship between dimensions of corporate governance and firm performance. Corporate governance dimensions used in the study are managerial ownership, institutional ownership, foreign ownership, government ownership, ownership concentration, board size, board independence, audit committee independence, CEO remuneration and CEO / Chairman duality. Performance measures used in the study are ROA, ROE and EPS. Data has been collected from 67 listed financial institutions of Pakistan for a period of 12 years (i.e. 2003 – 2014). OLS regression in E-views (version 7.0) has been applied to investigate the nature of relationship between corporate governance, risk and firm performance. In addition, path analysis in AMOS (version 21), using Preacher and Hayes (2008) approach, has been used to analyze whether risk taking mediates the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance. Study findings are that managerial ownership, foreign ownership, ownership concentration, board size, audit committee independence, firm size and growth opportunities have positive while institutional ownership, CEO / Chairman duality, CEO remuneration, leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have negative relationship with performance of financial institutions of Pakistan. Managerial ownership, foreign ownership, ownership concentration, board size, audit committee independence, firm size and current has negative while institutional ownership, CEO / Chairman duality, CEO remuneration, leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have positive relationship with risk. Moreover, risk acts as a partial mediator between foreign ownership and firm performance as well as board size and firm performance of financial institutions in Pakistan. In commercial bank sector, managerial ownership, ownership concentration, board size, board independence, audit committee independence, size growth opportunities and current ratio have positive relationship while institutional ownership, CEO remuneration, leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have negative relationship with performance of commercial banks of Pakistan. Managerial ownership, ownership concentration, board size, board independence, audit committee independence, size growth opportunities and current ratio have negative relationship while institutional ownership, CEO remuneration and leverage have positive relationship with risk faced by commercial banks of Pakistan. Moreover, managerial ownership, ownership concentration, board independence and audit committee independence affect the performance of commercial banks of Pakistan through risk. In insurance sector, foreign ownership, ownership concentration, board independence, audit committee independence, board size and firm size have positive while institutional ownership, leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have negative relationship with firm performance. Foreign ownership, ownership concentration, board independence, audit committee independence, board size and firm size have negative while institutional ownership, leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have positive relationship with risk faced by insurance companies. Moreover, risk acts as a partial mediator between foreign ownership and firm performance of insurance companies in Pakistan. In investment bank sector, managerial ownership, foreign ownership, ownership concentration firm size and growth opportunities have positive while institutional ownership, government ownership, CEO remuneration, firm leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have negative relationship with firm performance. Managerial ownership, foreign ownership, ownership concentration firm size and growth opportunities have negative while institutional ownership, government ownership, CEO remuneration, firm leverage and ratio of fixed to total assets have positive relationship with risk. Moreover, risk acts as a complete mediator between managerial ownership and firm performance of investment banks in Pakistan.
Impact of Work Social Support and CSR Activities on Firm Innovative Capability Testing Moderated Mediation Effect of Organizational Trust, Knowledge Sharing Process, Job Satisfaction and Feeling of Happiness The basic purpose of this study is to seek the empirical evidence of relationships between work social support, CSR activities, knowledge sharing process, and feeling of happiness, job satisfaction, organizational trust and firm innovative capability. It aims to hypothesize a moderated meditational model, implying that work social support and CSR activities are related to moderated effect of organizational trust which will, in turn, enhance the mediating effect of knowledge sharing process, feeling of happiness and job satisfaction, thereby facilitating higher innovative capability of firm. Data were collected from 534 respondents of banking industries by using self-administrated questionnaires. Data were analysed by using various statistical techniques like construct validity and normality in order to explore the nature of relationship among variables Hypotheses were tested using moderated mediation analysis with structural equation modeling. The research findings have provided support to the role of work social support and CSR activities as a mechanism, facilitating knowledge sharing process and makes employees feel happy when participate in CSR activities voluntarily, so employees become more satisfied with their jobs and it increase the capability of firm for innovativeness. Results indicate that: knowledge sharing process and job satisfaction fully mediates the relationship between work social support and firm innovative capability; and feeling of happiness fully mediates the relationship between CSR activities and firm innovative capability. Cross-sectional data were collected from Southern Punjab, Pakistan. It would be highly valuable to consider replicating this study in different settings using longitudinal designs. The study carries both academic and managerial implications, future direction and recommendations that can provide base for future studies.
Islamic banking is one of the most developing sectors in Pakistan This study reveals the relationship between consumer behavior towards bank selection criteria and customer satisfaction. For this purpose, data was collected from a sample of 200 consumers in different Islamic bank in Multan through a structured questionnaire containing 30 questions. SPSS 17 has been used for data analysis. Correlation and regression analysis, ordinary least square (OLS ) method was use to find out relationship among independent variables( religion, high profit &low service charges, influence of friends & family, service quality, responsive attitude of staff ,mass media & bank image) and dependent variable (customer satisfaction). The findings show positive and significant relationship among all variables and customer satisfaction partially mediates the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables. We conclude that customers’ satisfaction is increasing day after day and their commitment is strong with the Islamic banks. Key words: Islamic banking, Bank selection, Customer satisfaction
Factors Affecting Consumer Impulse Purchase Behavior (An Empirical Evidence from Pakistani Fashion Garments Market) The objective of this study is to find out major predictors of an impulse purchase and validates the already established model by previous researchers who have measured the impact of affect, subjective well being, self-esteem and social influence on an impulse purchase. Data were collected by using convenient sampling across the country from nine different universities. The sample size was 675 with 75 students from each university. A self-administered questionnaire was taken from old research studies and was used to collect data. Data were analyzed by using correlation and regression analysis. Results of the analysis gave a different picture as against that of old studies and the same was expected as well due to different cultural traits of the target population. For cognitive part of an impulse purchase, satisfaction with life scale, negative affect and customer susceptibility to interpersonal influence were found directly related and significant. For effective part of an impulse purchase, negative affect and satisfaction with life scale were found positively related and significant whereas self-competence, self-liking and customer susceptibility to interpersonal influence were found negatively related and significant. Managerial Implications suggest that managers should use celebrity endorsements hence making use of social influence for creating impulse purchases. Furthermore, use of effective marketing gimmicks may also be focused towards youngsters.
Predictors of customer loyalty in the Pakistani banking industry: a moderated-mediation study Purpose The purpose of this research is to develop an original framework to explore the effects of social influence (SI), market orientation (MO) and service quality (SQ) with moderating effect of emotional intelligence (EI) on customer loyalty (CL) and to discuss the mediational role of customer satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach This study applies six original concepts SI, MO, SQ, EI, customer satisfaction to develop an integral model to enhance CL. In addition, this research employs an empirical study by means of the questionnaire survey method to verify the hypotheses and to explore its managerial implications. Structural equation modeling has been applied to verify the research framework. Findings The empirical results show that MO, SI and SQ significantly affect CL with presence of customer satisfaction as a mediator. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the direct relationships between MO and SI on CL are not supported. However indirect paths present full mediation except in case of SQ where mediation was partial. Moreover, EI was found to enhance the partially mediated relationship between SQ and CL with mediational role customer satisfaction. Hence, banks should invest resources to increase MO, SI and SQ to increase customer satisfaction and CL. Originality/value This study summarizes the literature on customer satisfaction and relationship marketing into a new managerial framework of CL. It utilizes new arrangement of four construct SI, MO, and SQ with EI – to develop an original framework to enhance CL. Although past research has highlighted the relevant issues about CL, none explores it with MO and moderating role of EI on SQ. Therefore, this paper develops the research framework of CL to fill the research gap specifically in Pakistani context. Keywords: Service quality, Marketing intelligence, Customer satisfaction, Services marketing, Customer loyalty, SEM analysis
Analysis of Volatility of Portfolio Returns: Evidence from Pakistani Market The main focus of the present study is to investigate the model that is most superior to estimate, forecast and analyze and further examine the spillover effects of portfolio returns volatility of the stocks traded in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) of Pakistan for the time period of July 1998 to June 2011on daily basis. From 100 stocks, 10 portfolio returns (10 stocks each) are constructed sorted on high/low betas to estimate portfolio volatility. Due to autoregressiveness and heteroskedasticity characteristic of stock returns ARCH models are used to estimate the volatilities of portfolio returns. For analysis one symmetric GARCH-M model and three asymmetric TGARCH-M, EGARCH-M and PGARCH-M are used where conditional mean equation follows ARMA specification. The GARCH-M Models are employed because they allow to estimate the reward for facing the volatility risk by the investor. Based on the specification criteria of minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the higher R2, the ARMA (1, 0)-EGARCH (1, 1)-M is found to be the better specification to estimate portfolio returns volatility for all 10 portfolios. To arrive at the best model to estimate volatility for 10 portfolios returns the specific to general approach is adopted based on EGARCH-M specification. The specific models are extended by including first portfolios volume, then business cycle variables(market return, oil prices, gold prices, foreign exchange, foreign cash reserves), then deterministic shocks and finally stochastic shocks. The in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance evaluation suggests that general model is most superior to estimate and forecast portfolio returns volatility for all ten portfolios. The ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1)-M in general form is used further for examining the volatility spillover effect between the high risky and low risky portfolio returns volatilities and also among high risk, low risky portfolio volatility and business cycle variables. The results reveal that the high/low beta portfolios returns are more volatile and that the risk premium for facing volatility risk by almost all of the high-beta portfolios returns is highly significant compared to the low-beta portfolios returns. This indicates that the low-beta portfolios are less volatile and hence slowly respond to the new/surprises. The forecasting performance of the low-beta portfolios returns volatilities is high relative to the high-beta portfolios returns volatilities because of the strong predictability power of the less risky stocks relative to the high volatile stocks. Also, the empirical results reveal the existence of the volatility spillover effect between the high beta portfolio returns and the low beta portfolio returns as well as between the high/low portfolio returns and the business cycle variables respectively. The present study tend to be a comprehensive study that engulfs in itself all of the major and potential factors that may influence the portfolios returns volatilities and the predictability of the high-to-low beta portfolios returns volatilities as well as the volatility spillover effect. This analysis could be helpful for the academicians, researchers, financial analysts, local and foreign investors, portfolio managers, macro-economic policy makers and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan to forecast volatility, analyze spillover effects on one hand. On the other hand, the present study uses this analysis for understanding linkage between stock market volatility and financial and business cycle variables, development of modern corporate sector and efficient capital market to foster investment and economic growth in Pakistan.