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| Title | Abstract | Action(s) |
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| “The Impact of Financial Development and ICT on Total Factor Productivity: A Panel Analysis of BRI Countries” | In this study, we have analyzed the TFP growth in 45 low and middle-income BRI countries. BRI low and middle-income countries have low TFP growth due to many factors. Long-term output growth is significantly influenced by the development of total factor productivity (TFP) in the country. Several determinants have an impact on TFP growth, but this study is specifically examining the impact of ICT and FD on TFP growth. We have also used some control variables which include FDI, Trade, and institutional quality index. The study used the GMM, a dynamic panel data analysis technique, with data from the years 2000 to 2020. Our results found a significant relationship between ICT and TFP. ICT advancements and innovations facilitate economic activities and have improved economic performance. FD and TFP have also shown positive and significant results, which show that financial growth can lower capital expenses and financial risk. FDI and institutional quality index have also a positive association with TFP growth. Only the trade sector has shown negative results, which shows that imports are higher than exports in these countries, also exports are low mainly due to the quality of the exports. Keywords: Total Factor Productivity, Financial Development, Information and Communication Technology, Generalized Method of Moments |
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| Socio-Economic Factors affecting Child Health in Pakistan: A Cross Sectional Analysis | This study examines the economic, socio-demographic, and housing factors affecting child health in Pakistan. This study employs a Household Integrated Economic Survey of Pakistan (2018-19) for the empirical findings. A total sample of 24809 families, having at least one child (under five years) is considered to explore the factors affecting child health and, in some cases, leading to child death. This study adopts a procedure of indirect relationships (mediation) among the variables that provide a new rationale for this research. This study develops two factors determining child health i.e. food insecurity and asset poverty, that strengthen its significance and broadens its scope. This study employs a Logistic regression model to gauge the empirical magnitudes of the variables and a binary outcome variable while Haye’s process of mediation is for the deep insight of indirect nexus among variables. This study is aiming to assess the SDG of the United Nations by quantifying the critical socio-economic and demographic factors of child health on both national and provincial levels in Pakistan. The study concludes that expenditures on health strongly mediate the relation between adverse child health leading mortality in Pakistan. Economic factors like food security are one of the major factors that bring improvement in child health. In addition, rural-urban migration, house ownership, technical gadgets at home, and the type of fuel used for cooking deeply matter in reducing adverse child health conditions. This study draws the attention of the policymakers to understand the grass root level socio-economic factors of the household that plays a vital role in improving child health but are oversighted. Electricity, availability of clean drinking water, and toilet facility with proper sewerage system boosts the immune system of children and hence the ratio of child sickness and mortality rates are low in houses availing these facilities. In rural areas, a fuel other than natural gas for cooking or heating purpose adversely affects the health of children because of the emissions of hazardous gases. Generating income, motivation for utilizing health gadgets at home, knowledge, and attitude towards the positive use of mobile and internet facilities are suggested as appropriate measures to enhance the health status of mothers and children. |
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| Impact of Industrialization on Environmental Quality: Evidence from Pakistan | The industrialization of Pakistan is one of the primary contributors to the country's air, water, and land pollution problems. The Industrial Revolution caused a shift in the manner that everything was made, including food, energy, sanitation, and the technology that were used to manufacture goods. In this research, to investigate relationship between industrialization and environmental quality in Pakistan. The data used in this analysis were collected on a yearly basis from 1980 to 2020 for the country of Pakistan. The application of this analytical approach in Pakistan not only offered a comprehensive overview of the repercussions of IND on the environment, but it also assisted greatly in determining the fundamental reasons of the industrial pollution that is pervasive in this nation. From different studies researcher find the relationship between emissions and FDI. Alterations to these other parameters, however, might be enough to bring about a reduction in pollution. In middle-income nations that are experiencing strong economic expansion, the influence of growth dominates all of these other factors. Growth is slower in wealthy countries, which means that countries' efforts to reduce pollution can counteract the effect of growth. These econometric results are confirmed by evidence that, in reality, efforts are being made to solve pollution problems in developing economies. On the other hand, there is no widespread agreement regarding the factors that cause changes in pollution levels. |
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| Energy Governance and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis | Affordable energy becomes an integral part of economic growth. Affordability of energy is determined by availability of energy and proactive governance measures at upstream, midstream and downstreams of energy system. Present study empirically investiages the impact of energy governance on three selected macroeconomic indicators of Pakistan economy during the period of 1985 to 2021.There is hardly a single study that measures downstream energy governance and estimate its impact on three macroeconomic indicators (external debt, unemployment rate and national income). The first objective is related to measurements of downstream energy governance. For this purpose, study uses three dimensions of downstream energy governance. Furthermore, six indicators from three dimensions are utilized to construct energy governance index. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methodology is used to construct a composite variable of energy governance. After tackling the measurement issues of energy governance, the study uses an amended form of neo-classical production function as an econometric model in which study introduces energy governance as a determinant factor of macroeconomic indicators. There are three models that contain three different dependent variables which are unemployment, external debt, and gross domestic product. As study uses time series data and many series are nonstationary at level but are these are stationary at first difference. The study estimate the models with the help of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The first model of study measures the impact of energy governance on externa debt. Energy governance has a negative impact on external in the long run as well as in the short run. On same token, energy governance has negative and statistically significant impact on unemployment rate of Pakistan. In last model, energy governance has positive and significant impact on gross domestic product of Pakistan. At the end, study suggests that efficient energy governance decrease the energy losses and better performance of macroeconomic variables. So policy makers should improve the quality of infrastructure of downstream energy system, and streamlining regulatory frameworks that lower the energy losses. |
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| Public Spending and Poverty: The Mediating Role of Social and Physical Infrastructure in Developing Countries | The basic purpose of this research is to study the relationship between poverty and public spending through the mediating role of social and physical infrastructure. Social infrastructure consists of literacy rate and health expenditures and physical infrastructure includes access to electricity as energy and rail line as transportation. This study analyzes panel data for 52 developing countries for the period of 1981-2020. To investigate the relationship between poverty and public spending, mediation and moderation methodologies have been used following Hayes, A. F. (2017) and Latif et al., (2017). Empirical analysis for mediation analysis is subject to seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) developed and suggested by Biorn, (2004) and that is the most suitable technique for unbalanced panel data so far while moderation analysis is carried out using fixed and random effects models for panel data. Based on empirical analysis carried out to find the impact of public spending on poverty for the panel of developing countries through the channel of social infrastructure i.e. literacy rate and health expenditures, this study finds that public spending reduces poverty directly as well as indirectly. The mediating and moderating role of social infrastructure i.e. literacy rate and health expenditures, was also found significant. Similarly, the empirical analysis carried out to find the impact of public spending on poverty for the panel of developing countries through the channel of physical infrastructure i.e. energy (access to electricity) and rail lines, it is concluded that public spending reduces poverty directly as well as indirectly. The mediating role of physical infrastructure i.e. energy and rail lines, it is concluded that this channel is also significant in the case of panel developing countries. Energy plays a moderating role in reducing poverty but rail lines do not help to reduce poverty as a moderator. This study further concludes that some control variables like foreign remittances, unemployment, trade openness, population growth, GDP growth rate, and inflation rate also affect poverty in developing countries. From the results of this study, it is concluded that foreign remittances, trade openness, and GDP growth reduce poverty in developing countries. Based on the results, it is also concluded that unemployment, population growth, and inflation are responsible for high levels of poverty in the panel countries. |
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| An Empirical Assessment of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination with Public debt in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis | The development of monetary and debt management procedures that work in tandem with each other would be self-reinforcing, so the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies would give rise to a better result in any of the above scenarios. This would be the case because the development of such procedures would be mutually reinforcing. The objective of the study is to analyze the effects of monetary policy coordination on public debt and to analyze the effects of fiscal policy coordination on public debt. To examine the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy with public debt, we select the South Asian country Pakistan, this paper covers annual time series data from 1980 to 2020. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test were utilized in order to determine the order of integration and for the purpose of checking stationarity. Estimates of the Markov-switching model were derived for each of the policy reaction functions. We analyze each model's transition probability as well as the predicted duration of each regime, and we will use this information to determine the extent of the coordination that exists between monetary and fiscal policy. This study implies that Pakistan's monetary policy operates differently depending on the economic conditions that are currently in place and the policy aims that are being prioritized. The coefficients that were connected with these variables revealed their influence on the process of making fiscal decisions, and the coefficients' negative values suggested that these variables had a dampening effect on fiscal sustainability. The findings of the study on the dynamics and sustainability of fiscal policy in Pakistan give useful insights for policymakers. Policymakers can improve the coordination of fiscal policy, adopt proactive measures, prioritize economic growth and external management, perform regular assessments, stimulate additional research, and boost fiscal openness and accountability if they execute the recommended methods |
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| Analyzing Public Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from selected South Asian Countries | The purpose of this study is to examine the sustainability of the debt of selected South Asian nations. The majority of South Asian countries have stated that they will attempt to fulfill the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that the United Nations has set. Supporting efforts to attain these goals, particularly those relating to the elimination of poverty, the development of infrastructure, and the provision of social welfare is dependent on effective debt management and fiscal sustainability. The advanced statistical methods are applied to analyze debt sustainability in South Asian nations. The focus is on understanding the relationship between various economic factors and debt dynamics, without delving into the complexities of specific tests and models used. This approach provides clear insights into fiscal management and sustainability. The analysis, while complex, reveals key insights into the dynamics of public budget management in relation to external revenue, trade openness, and organizational governance in South Asian nations. It indicates the necessity for ongoing research and refinement in fiscal policy modeling to enhance debt sustainability and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals in these regions. The study concludes that for South Asian nations, effective debt risk management is pivotal in ensuring fiscal sustainability and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It recommends the creation of comprehensive debt risk management frameworks, emphasizing the importance of conducting detailed stress tests and vulnerability assessments. This approach is vital for these countries to manage their debt responsibly, mitigate risks, and ensure economic stability in the face of potential external shocks |
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| The Impact of Green, Technological Change and Renewable Energy on CO2 Emission: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries | The debate on green growth has been increasing among researchers as an approach to address environmental conservation and provide a sustainable solution to the climate change dilemma. Numerous nations are working on their emission neutrality goals. The present research examines the role of green growth, technological change, GDP growth, renewable energy, and trade openness on environmental degradation in the context of selected Asian economies from 1990–2018. This investigation applied second-generation panel data techniques. Within the framework of Environmental Kuznets (EK) curve theory, the present study employed the cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) strategy to investigate the effects of green growth and economic expansion (GDP) along with other macroeconomic indicators on the environmental quality. The findings of this study concluded technological innovation, green growth, clean energy and expansion of GDP all have an important impact (positive/negative) on CO2. There is an inverting U-shaped EK curve exists in the selected Asian countries. This analysis indicates that the green growth significantly minimizing the level of CO2. Additionally, it has been revealed that using renewable energy and technological change reduces the production of CO2 emissions. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel estimation technique was employed to determine whether all factors were causally interrelated. Thus, results concluded that bi-directional relationship found between CO2-trade openness, CO2-green growth, GDP-renewable energy, GDPgreen growth, GDP-technological change, GDP-trade, technological change-renewable energy, renewable energy-green growth, technological innovation-green growth, tradegreen growth and technological innovation-trade openness. And unidirectional causality is running from GDP, GDP2 , technological change, renewable energy to CO2, GDP2 to renewable energy and renewable energy to trade openness. Policy makers should concentrate on adopting clean energy policies, leading to a more rapid reduction in energy-associated CO2 pollution. |
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