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| Title | Abstract | Action(s) |
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| A Blue Economy and Accounting for Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India | Blue economy is an emerging pillar of modern and sustainable economy. Present study is an attempt to empirically examine the impact of the blue economy on the economic growth of Pakistan and India because the quantification of the blue economy is a key component of the current study. The ongoing study is a time series analysis from the period 1980 to 2018. This quantitative analysis is used to evaluate how much economic growth may be predicted from shifting economic activity to the blue economy. So, a multidimensional blue economy index is constructed for this purpose. Twelve proxy variables constitute the six pillars of BE for each country. After tackling the measurement issues of blue economy, an amended form of neo-classical production function is used for econometric model in this research which introduced the blue economy as an engine of growth to solve the growth puzzle. Other variables gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and blue economy (BE) are selected as independent variables while GDP as a dependent variable. After checking the unit root or order of integration of all variables with the help of Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and Philip-Perron unit root tests, study estimates the neoclassical production function with the help of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings highlight the fact that there is a statistically significant impact of BE, GFCF and TLF on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. However, in the short run BE and TLF has a positive but insignificant impact on GDP. In case of India, GFCF, TLF and BE positively and significantly influence the economic growth in the long run. However, in the short run TLF are positively but statistically insignificant. Study finds natural resource (blue economy) as a blessing for both economies in the long run. It means BE is an engine of growth. By comparing the results of both countries in growth accounting framework, share of growth due to capital, labor, blue economy and total factor productivity increase the economic growth of India more than that of Pakistan. The study wraps up with the effective policy recommendations like sustainable coastal management, improved marine policy along with ports efficiency, tourism development and sound development of aquaculture industry to vitalize blue economy potentials successfully. Key words: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Blue Economy (BE), Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Growth Accounting (GA) |
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| “Dynamic of Food Inflation in Pakistan. Role of Trade Liberalization and Oil Prices” | Environmental sustainability is one of the main concerns in recent decades. Environmental degradation affects human health which ultimately affects productivity and thereby economic growth. Keeping in the view of Environmental sustainability the aim of this study is to construct Environmental sustainability index that focuses on the air, land and water indicators. Many factors affect Environmental sustainability and among those Fiscal policy is one of the main factors. Thus study aims to investigate how fiscal policy affects environmental sustainability in the long run and short run. We have taken the time series data in the context of Pakistan from 1974 to 2020. For the estimation of symmetric and asymmetric effects, we apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method (NARDL) techniques. According to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method results in our findings show that the developmental expenditures have a negative, but the subsidies have a positive impact on environmental sustainability in the long run while in the short run, both have a negative impact. The Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method result shows that in the long run, subsidies have a positive impact on positive and negative shocks whereas, in the short run, subsidies have a negative impact on positive shocks and a positive effect on negative shocks. While in the asymmetric relationship subsidy have a positive effect on both positive and negative shocks. The study suggests that government should reduce the subsidies on energy consumption products and give subsidies to those industries which use environmental friendly techniques. Environmental restrictions to reduce pollution must be properly implemented through effective monitoring. Keywords: Environmental sustainability, Fiscal policy, ARDL, NARDL. |
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| “Dynamic of Food Inflation in Pakistan. Role of Trade Liberalization and Oil Prices” | Since 2008, food price has been a major topic of debate around the world. Food prices spiked dramatically in 2008, prompting a considerable investigation into the responses and dynamics of this particular incidence of food prices. An increase in fuel prices and speculative behavior in agricultural commodity financial markets were all attributed in the international literature to food prices. This study looks into the causes of food inflation in Pakistan. Food prices in Pakistan seem to be a source of concern for policymakers, and the country's high food prices have necessitated an investigation of the fundamental factors that determine food prices. The current study investigates the effects of trade liberalization and higher fuel prices on food inflation in Pakistan, and also another indicator, the presence of middlemen, which restricts supply and increases food prices. The standard implication is to work with single equation model (econometric model) in which food inflation is dependent determinant while trade openness, crude oil price, and some other determinants are taken as explanatory variables. The purpose of the research is to look at the cost-push variables (crude oil prices and price wedge) and demand-pull (money supply, trade liberalization) determinants that influence food price. Data over the period spanning 1980 to 2020 were used in this investigation. Data is compiled from a variety of sources, including the World Development Indicators, and Pakistan Economic Survey. The other determinants used in the study include exchange rate, price wedge and money supply. The coefficient of trade openness is negative -0.18 which shows a negative relationship between trade openness and food inflation and variable is significant at 5%. On the other hand, the coefficient of crude oil prices is positive 0.11 and the variable is significant at 5%. The ECM term of -0.54 means that the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium, which is 54% between the variables and the error correction model is also statistically significant. The study's outcomes show that trade openness significantly reduces food inflation, reflecting Romer's hypothesis in Pakistan. Second, crude oil prices have a significant influence on food inflation. The research reveals that food inflation is determined by the money supply. According to this analysis, the government should enhance price caps on oil prices to prevent spillover effects on food supply and production costs. Key Words: Food Inflation, Oil Prices, Trade Openness, ARDL |
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| “Non-Agricultural Determinants of Arable Land of Pakistan; An Empirical Analysis ” | Rapid urbanization and infrastructure development has transformed the arable land into soil sealing activities (Permanent conversion of arable land into immoveable material such as buildings, infrastructural development). It also takes more land away from agricultural production, threatening Pakistan’s capability to feed itself. The basic aim of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of industrialization, urbanization, and infrastructure development on the arable land of Pakistan. Thus, this study is an attempt to highlight the importance of the arable land of Pakistan. There are few studies available internationally but not that much work had been done at national level and fewer studies are available for Pakistan's economy because some of the scholars are working on this area only at the provincial level. This study attempts to analyze the impact of non-agricultural use of land such as soil sealing activates on arable land of Pakistan. Study analyzes the determinants of land use by modeling arable land as a dependent variable and urbanization, industrialization and infrastructure development as an independent variables. For empirical analysis standard methodology of Logit has been employed. The results show that urbanization and infrastructure developments are the key drivers of the conversion of farm land into non-agricultural use. The results suggest that due to urbanization, industrialization and infrastructure development arable reduces day by day and there is negative relationship of arable land with urbanization and infrastructure development and our results are consistent with the other studies (Zhang 2004). The results also shows that urbanization and grain deficit are the main sources that effect the arable land and urbanization is the main driving force that convert the arable land into nonagricultural use. The study also suggest some policies as, first there should be vertical integration, for example, the development of the housing societies expand vertically instead of horizontally. Second, before the installation of any industry on the arable land cost and benefit analysis should be require. If the cost of installing industry is greater than agricultural production then agriculture production should be preferred. Last but not least, the decision of Sell and purchase of the arable land must be under control of the government. |
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| “Exploring the Relationship Between Road Infrastructure and Agricultural Productivity: Evaluating Empirical Evidence of Pakistan Economy” | The present study investigates of the relationship between quality-road infrastructure and agricultural output by using time series data from 1980 to 2020. Present research has three main goals first, the study analyzed the impact of road infrastructure on output of agricultural sector of Pakistan by using time series data from 1980-2020. Secondly, study evaluates the impact of quality roads on output of three main selected crops like wheat, rice, and cotton of Pakistan. The third objective is to analyze the effect of road infrastructures on agricultural productivity at aggregate and disaggregate level of Pakistan. In methodology, two different unit root tests are used to find the order of integration of each series of all models of the study and these two tests are Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests. Both tests indicate that some variables are non-stationary at levels while some are stationary at first difference. These findings suggest that there may be cointegration among the variables. In such circumstances Auto Regressive Distributed Lag bound testing approach i is regarded as the most appropriate technique for obtaining short and long run outcomes. Our finding is indicated the test of hypothesis that road infrastructure is not significant impact on agricultural production at both the aggregate and disaggregate levels (rice) except the wheat and cotton production. Accordingly, from the long run result is suggested that quality of road has insignificant impact on total output as well as in short run it is also insignificant. In the form of wheat production, the quality of road has significant impact in long run but in short run effect it is insignificant. But in the form of 2nd food crop rice, the quality of road has not significant effect in long term along with in short term. Lastly, the form of cash crop, quality of road has significant influence on long run but in short run it effect is insignificant. Present study of policy recommendations suggests that there should be more focus on the improvement of rural infrastructure instead of the road infrastructure, also, in future, if more work is done on the farm technology, skilled labor force and capital input, Pakistan’s agricultural sector and overall economy will experience a great improvement. Keywords: Road infrastructure, Agricultural Productivity & Road connectivity, Economic growth |
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| “Impact of Capital Inflows and Money Supply on Exchange Rate: A Case Study of South Asian Countries” | Present study analyzes the impact of capital inflows and money supply on exchange rate for a sample of four South Asian countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka) over the period 2000-2020. South Asia region is struggling with the issue of having insufficient amounts of financial capital. So, it leads low level of income. These nations have low savings and investment rates and it causeslow-income levels. Exchange rate shows degree of competitiveness of south asia regarding international trade. Real exchange rate is examine as important factor since economic growth of south asia. The finding of study indicate that exchange rate and its determinants shows statistically significant role in determining of exchange rate. Descriptive statistics describes the features of all variables in detail. The overall result shows exchange rate is volatile over time and all variables have a significant impact on determining the exchange rate. The highest variance of the exchange rate in all countries shows the volatility of the exchange rate over time. Panel ARDL Estimator show that both capital inflows and money supply are associated withs exchange rate. Remittances show big impact on appreciation of exchange rate. The short-run of the panel shows cointegration term is negative and significant which means variables are stable in short-run shocks and convergence towards the long run. The cross-section short-run coefficient shows three countries stable in the short run but Pakistan is not stable in the short run. Bangladesh is a more stable country of the selected four countries. Keywords: exchange rate, interest rate, money supply, countries, south asia, trade, inflation, currency etc. |
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| Nexus of Democracy, Financial Openness and Financial Development: A Panel Analysis of Selected Asian Countries | Financial development is a key for all developments in any countries .several proxies have been selected by numerous studies that play their part effectively in acceleration of financial development activities. To maintain the study at fix important variables including democracy, financial openness, and all the indicators of these variables The current study explores the determinants of financial development process in selected countries of South Asian Association for Regional Corporation (SARRC) namely, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. Financial development is measured by financial openness and democracy. For empirical estimation, fixed effect model is used on panel data from the period of 1975to 2019.The empirical findings reveal that financial development will be effected by financial openness and democracy as in long run democracy will significantly affect financial development but in short run democratic situation will have negative reaction for financial development. In long run financial openness have negative impact but in short run it will significantly affect financial development. Democracy along with financial openness is positively related to financial development in short run as well as in long run. |
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| The Impact of Democracy on Economic Growth in Developing Countries | The association between democracy and economic growth is being debated for a very long time. Despite a lot of empirical and theoretical literature, no conclusive results have been obtained regarding the influence of democracy on economic growth. Within this framework, this study aims to factually scrutinize the influence of democracy on economic growth for selected advanced and developing Asian economies from the period of 1996 to 2019. This study adopts the panel FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square) approach to draw empirical insight about the link between democracy and growth. For drawing useful empirical consensus, the study also performed several important diagnostics tests such as panel unit root test, cross-sectional dependence test, and co-integration test. Findings of FMOLS model shows that democracy tends to improve economic growth in developed, developing, and Asian countries. This is also reported that corruption control index positively increases economic growth in developing and developed Asian countries. Other determinants such as education, population, and investment also report an important and positive increase in economic growth in developing, developed, and Asian nations. In contrast, consumption tends to reduce economic growth in developing, developed, and Asian economies. The outcomes of the study recommend that democratic norms must promote in order to restrain corruption and boost the economic growth of the nations. It is also suggested that institutional quality should be strengthened in order to obtain fruitful outcomes of democratic regimes and human capital should be accumulated in order to increase economic growth. Keywords: Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government, Economic Growth, Comparative Study of Countries. JEL Codes: H11; F43; O57. |
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| Impact of Monetary Policy on Socio-Economic Indicators of South Asian Countries: An Empirical Analysis. | The issue of unemployment, poverty and income inequality is gaining traction on a daily basis, both nationally and internationally. Despite extensive research into how to combat this threat, it appears that little progress has been made. An economy's growth may be impeded due to societal challenges such as poverty and income inequality. Many experts believe that monetary variables such as the money supply and interest rate have no significant economic impact. Empirical evidence shows a significant association between monetary policy and socio-economic indices such as poverty, inequality, and unemployment. Poverty, income inequality and unemployment are used as dependent variables. Money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and total reserve are taken as explanatory variables. The policy variables have significant relation with the dependent variables, except poverty is not influenced by the total reserve. The data for these countries are taken from World Development Indicators and International Financial statistics from 1990 to 2020. The Panel ARDL Cointegration (Pedroni) and Pooled Mean Group explore the relationship between monetary policy and socio-economic variables. From Pedroni Cointegration test shows that there is a long Run relationship between monetary variables and socio-economic variables. Pooled Mean Group explore the relationship among variables in the short run and long run. From Pooled Mean Group has explore value the of coefficients. The results support the significant relationship between monetary and socio-economic variables in the long and short run. According to the findings, central banks should assess the socioeconomic impact of monetary policy before implementing it. This study recommended that any country's central bank supply a limited amount of money which affects poverty, income inequality and unemployment significantly because money supply not only impacts these socio-economic variables but also affects the policy variables. So, it is advised that monetary authorities assess the implications of monetary policy before implementing policy |
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| Sways of Environmental Degradation on Economic Growth of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis | The study focuses on the three sources of pollution, specifically air, water and land pollution, and estimates the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth through the instruments of environmental Kuznets curve over the years 1995 till 2022. Further, to justify environment-economy nexus, an empirical analysis is conducted to determine the extent of the impact of air, water and land pollution, as well as monetary, physical and human capital on economic growth of Pakistan. Indices covering economic, demographic and environmental variables are constructed by using techniques of principal component analysis and principal factor analysis. The results of augmented Dicky-Fuller test show that all series are stationary at first difference of lag length one with-intercept and without trend. The ARDL bound test supports the presence of long-run co-integration. The magnitude and sign of long-run and short-run ARDL coefficients are consistent with the economic growth and environmental theory. The linear, positively sloped environmental Kuznets curve truly represents the early stages of economic growth and development in Pakistan. The negative significant value of the error correction term is an optimistic conclusion that the short-run shocks can be corrected to long-run equilibrium in all types of environmental degradation and economic growth model. The composition of the indices of environmental degradation provides the determinants of different types of pollutions that can be controlled by monitoring these determinants. At the policy level to identify and to mitigate the air, water and soil pollution, the ministry of climate change and environmental coordination should seek international assistance and play a role in tracking and monitoring the performance of SDG-related determinants of pollution. Keywords: environmental degradation, economic growth, environmental Kuznet curve, principal component analysis, principal factor analysis, ARDL. iv |
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| The Socio-Economic Impact of Tourism in Azad Kashmir: A Case Study of District Poonch | Tourism plays an important role in the welfare of a country like Pakistan. The aim of the study is to show the impact of tourism on the socio-economic status of the inhabitants of Poonch, Azad Kashmir. The study is based on purely primary data. Mix method was used to get the data. Moreover, Ordinary least square (OLS) technique used for the outcomes of the results. The findings show that socio-economic indicators such as education, health, employment, income and consumption expenditure has positive impact on the tourism. Keywords: tourism, tourists, Kashmir, Poonch, employment, education, health, income, etc. |
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| “Effects of Agricultural Micro-Credit on Socioeconomic Conditions in Azad Kashmir: A Cross-Sectional Analysis” | The present study aims to investigate the effect of agriculture micro-credit on the socioeconomic status of farmers in Azad Kashmir. The study collects primary data from 210 borrowers of agriculture micro credit from Zarai Taraqiati Bank (ZTBL) and 85 non-borrowers who did not receive micro-credit from ZTBL. The study used a structured questionnaire to collect data on various socioeconomic characteristics of the borrowers, including income, savings, educational expenditure, and health expenditure, as well as demographic variables such as age, marital status, education, type of family, house condition, household size, land size, agriculture micro credit duration, and agriculture micro credit amount. The study found that the socioeconomic status of the farmers significantly affected the amount of agriculture micro credit. Factors such as marital status, household status, house condition, income, savings, and health level were found to have a significant effect on the amount of micro credit. Keywords: Agriculture Micro-credit, Income, Saving, Health expenditure, Education expenditure, ZTBL, Azad Kashmir, Farmers. |
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| Human Capital and Industrialization Nexus and its Implication on Economic Growth in Pakistan | The study’s aim to investigate the impact of human capital and industrialization on economic growth in Pakistan. Human Capital & Industrialization are the major factors that increase the level of output and accelerate the economic growth. The ongoing study is a time series analysis from the period 1980 to 2021. Human Capital Index, industrialization Index, combine variable (Industrialization Index* Human Capital Index) are selected as independent variables and control variable is trade while economic growth as a dependent variable. After checking the unit root or order of integration of all variables with the help of Augmented Dickey Fuller Test and Philip-Perron unit root tests. P-Values are stationary at level and first difference. The relation among variables is checked through Autoregressive Regressive Distributed Lag Model and Error Correction Term. The findings of the ARDL test show that increasing economic growth, Human Capital Index*industrialization index increases the employment opportunities in Pakistan during the long-run and short-run. In contrast, (industrialization index*Human Capital Index) and industrialization index positively connect with economic growth for both long run and short-run in Pakistan. The findings of ARDL express the long run nexus between human capital, industrialization and economic growth. The Significant relationship among the variables like trade, Industrialization Index, Human Capital Index, combine variables Human Capital Index*Industrialization Index. Coefficients of ECT express the short run relationship between human capital, industrialization and economic growth. The significant outcomes show that there is a short run relation exists among variables. Keywords: Economic Growth, Industrialization Index, Human Capital Index, Trade |
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| “Impact of Fiscal Measures on Agriculture Sector Productivity: Evaluating the Empirical Evidence From Pakistan” | Fiscal interventions can play a vital role in transforming agriculture productivity in Pakistan. The key objective of the present study is to dynamically measure the influence of fiscal instruments on the agriculture sector productivity in Pakistan in both the long and short periods along with the cause-and-effect relationship for the period 1981 to 2020. To explore outcomes agriculture productivity is used as a dependent variable agriculture loan, agriculture subsidy, agriculture research, and agriculture infrastructure is taken as regressors of the model. Initially, the estimated empirical outcomes of the bound test extensively validate the presence of a strong long-run association between the variables taken under contemplation for the present study. Secondly, the estimates of the ARDL model displays that individually all the regressors in longer and shorter period positively influence the agriculture sector productivity in Pakistan. Meaning that a substantial boost in agriculture productivity can take place if fiscal measures of agriculture loan, agriculture subsidy, agriculture research, and agriculture infrastructure have been employed. Firstly, promote the farming sector by giving each farming family easy access to interest-free agriculture loans. Also, provide maximum subsidy to these farming families on basic agriculture products. Secondly, enhanced agriculture research and also develop agriculture infrastructure in such a way that the agriculture products loss can be minimized. Adoption of this policy straightens a strong path toward enhancing agricultural productivity in the developing economy of Pakistan. Keywords: Agriculture Productivity, Agriculture Loan, ARDL Model, and Agriculture Infrastructure JEL Classification: Q1, H8, C32, 010 |
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