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Title An Analysis Of Oil Price Fluctuations And Macro Economics Performance Of Pakistan

Author(s) Memoona Sajid

Abstract Abstract of the Study The present work is an attempt to investigate the impact of oil price fluctuations on Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan. The study currently used the time series data from 1976 to 2015 and Johansen co integration test is used to shows the results of analysis. The empirical results explore that Macroeconomic Performance indicator in a powerful tool to measure the cause of oil price fluctuations in Pakistan.Economic Performance Index (EPI) an intuitive tool for finding a country’s economic performance, which is presented by Khramov and Lee (2013). More importantly, all the variables which are used in Macroeconomic Performance indicator like unemployment rate, real effective exchange rate, government spending, government deficit, trade Balance play a very vital role to find the outcome of oil price fluctuations in Pakistan.The ARCHGARCH models are designed to deal with fluctuation problems. ARCH model formed by Engle (1982) and GARCH model is presented by Bollerslev (1986). It was also found that the larger fluctuations of oil prices cause negative collision on the Macroeconomic Performance of Pakistan, because of this negative impact the Macroeconomic performance become statistically insignificant. Finally the study suggest that to faster the Macroeconomic Performance of a Pakistan we should control the fluctuations of oil prices as it is the main indicator to boost the Performance of a country. It is also suggested that the Macroeconomic Performance may also supportive for the other countries to check the impact of Oil price fluctuate

Type Thesis/Dissertation MS

Faculty Management Sciences

Department Economics

Language English

Publication Date 2019-03-25

Subject MPhil Economics

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